Morning all, and I’m going to start at the end today, because Elusif pops up on the AW algorithm in the 8:15 at Kempton, which I’ve learned to trust, so long as the rankscore is high and the form is good. Now, form isn’t all that with Elusif, at least compared to the odds-on favourite Gunnerside who won last time out, gets three pounds extra and a penalty and comes here as red-hot favourite. However, wins can be a flash in the pan at this level, and the penalty may see a reversal with Elusif finally sliding far enough down the official ratings that he might just float to the line. It’s not necessarily form that promotes him this high up in our considerations, but his 50% win rate over C&D – earned historically – but conditions will be run to suit.
Now, who wants a horse that has run 5 times over C&D and won them all? Everyone, that’s who. Ginger Jam runs at the tasty price of 5/1 in the 4:00 at Beverley. Shame it’s not the 5 o’clock because that would have had a pleasing aspect. Anyway, this is a selection that’s coming back down in the weights, loves Beverley to bits, and loves running over 5 furlongs. He’s bottom of the ratings, largely because he’s been running in races that aren’t to his liking, but statistically speaking, he’s a likely sort today.
In the 5:40, you really do have to stretch your imagination back to when Kylie Rules was a 4-year-old and won at Beverley for fun. Last year, her form was so utterly pants that she finished one race a whole six hours behind the winner, and found herself locked inside the racecourse after everyone had gone home. None of this is true, except that she finished really far back. Anyway, on reappearance, you might hope for a revitalised horse after a long campaign last year, and you’d want a healthy price and signs that the market is backing her. A punt, but not an unreasonable one given that conditions should suit if she’s back to her best.
And at 5:30, Kendred Soul runs at Leopardstown having just changed yards. We used to have a system for horses that switch yards and run first time out for their new trainer – and it was always profitable. I should revive it somehow, but it’s an indicator for you that a fresh start is as good as anything, and this one has been running very well over the winter at Dundalk. A switch to turf shouldn’t be of any concern with a slightly lower mark, and if you can get a price of around 10/1, then you’d be looking at some handy place money.
A final reminder about stallion ratings, lastly – because you have more unraced 2-year-olds at Newmarket, some of whom might give you a healthy chance at the bookies. Beautiful Sunshine is quite short in the 1:15, but has a huge stallion rating (8). Ryan Rossa rides that one, as well as Velvet and Steel in the 4:10 – this one has raced already (now 3 years old) and debuted quite well. Place money if you can get the quoted 10/1 for the win… 3:35 is the Nell Gwyn and you could back any of these, you just don’t know how they’re going to turn up… Saffron Beach is the stallion pick, and was unbeaten as a 2yo.
Over to you now…