- Brynteg – 2nd (laid), De Vegas Kid – 4th
- Spanish Mane – 3rd (laid), Eastern Star – nowhere
- Days Like This – nowhere
- Larch Hill – 4th, Sir Tivo – 1st
Challenging week thus far. Yesterday’s lack of any strong selections above 3 stars gives you an indication of the kind of day we had.
Today, we have one five-star selection – Grey Fox. He runs in the 7:00 at Kempton with a 50% win rate over the distance. He’s 5/1, and that’s largely because it’s only his second start on the all-weather, so it’s kinda priced in for you there. Form is excellent, suitability less known, but in a field where lots of horses have changes, you’re looking for value. Lafan, however, may give you even better value. He actually tops the ratings, prefers the all-weather and is proven here, and is yours for 10/1. Place money, I think.
In the 2:00 at Worcester, two horses here – Gouet des Bruyeres gets four stars and is also eased a pound, so after a couple of second places, he’s in with a shout while he’s not the most inspiring of shouts. On the Bandwagon is progressive, though, and comes further down the ratings at a better price (8/1 at time of writing) and if he’s capable of any further progress then his ratings will be much healthier next time.
There are two track specialists today at Musselburgh. Militia runs in the 4:20 and he’s a form horse with a 50% win rate over C&D. At a price of 11/4, he looks one of the better bets of the day, topping form, speed, jockey AND suitability. While that one’s rather good, less so might be 60% win rater Gweedore in the 3;15. He’s way down on form and you may suspect that the handicapper has had his say. It’ll take some time to get him down to racing weight, and the good to firm going won’t be in his favour either. Maybe set him to one side.
And 5:20 at Bath, Hot Hot Hot is what I say whenever I get in the bath. Hopefully he won’t be standing around waiting for things to cool down and he’ll be in at the hot end of things – christ, sorry, this really is a shite extended metaphor. He tops the ratings, tops form, and is super progressive, so deserves a place bet at the very least tonight with a price of 5/1. Take note also of Pastfact who is further down but equally progressive, and has a 31% win rate at Bath. Longer odds, too.
Right – over to you.