Throughout the summer, you will be faced with races where you know precious little about the horses racing. Every 2-year-old has to make his or her debut, and there are often large numbers of 3-year-olds that didn’t race as a 2yo.
So, we created the stallion rating to help you understand more about the horse’s breeding, and therefore its potential. Nobody else has this rating, so it gives you a huge advantage in these races.
What goes into the stallion rating?
When rating a stallion, we have to analyse the performance of its offspring in the current racing conditions. So, if we are analysing a horse called Endeavour, running in the 3:00 at York, who is out of Galileo, then we would be looking at how Galileo’s progeny have performed in conditions similar to those being faced by Endeavour today.
That would include:
- The going
- The distance
- The time of year
- The track
- Performance at this age
All of these factors are then weighted to create the stallion rating.
How do I use the stallion rating?
We’ve deliberately kept this rating low because it is used as an indicator of a horse’s potential, rather than a significant factor in the race. It should only be used in the following scenarios:
- Flat or All-Weather racing
- Where there is no or very little form to read (e.g. Last Race = 0 or 2nd Last Race = 0)
- This is usually in April and May, although 2-year-olds make their debuts throughout the summer
A good stallion rating really starts at 2.0. We have seen some ratings of 5.0 or above, and these are exceptional.
Importantly, you should understand that a good stallion rating doesn’t necessarily make a good race horse. There have been plenty of examples of high stallion ratings where the horse has gone on to be an absolute flop.
It’s crucial, therefore, that firstly the trainer rating is high (above 1.0, at the very least), and also that the jockey rating is high (again, at least 1.0). With both of these ratings, you know that the young horse is in good hands, and has been given the best possible opportunity to race well.
When you see the combination of high stallion, trainer and jockey ratings together, you often have a selection that has good potential.
What else should I look out for?
There are certain yards that do very well with juveniles. Mark Johnston and Archie Watson, for instance, have great records with 2-year-olds, while other yards tend to need some time for their horses to get up to speed.
The market often knows this, and you may find artificially depressed prices for these horses, but the market doesn’t know your stallion ratings! This is an advantage.
Also, look out for a horse’s second race. On the occasion that a juvenile does need a race or two before improving, then you need to look at the form column to see how well it has done, as well as the speed column. This is the first bit of data harvesting that we can do for a new horse – and these two figures are a great guide.
You may often find that horses that start well are penalised, and this brings opportunities for other well-bred horses who take a race or two. Compare their form ratings – anything above 70 in this sphere is quite useful – and the same goes for speed ratings: any speed rating above 70 has to be taken into consideration.
So, in summary
- Stallion ratings give you an advantage over the market – nobody else offers them
- Use them when you have little form to read
- Back stallion ratings of 2.0 or more when there are good jockey & trainer ratings (minimum 1.0)
- Look for LR (Last Race) form on second races as well as speed – some juveniles need a race or two before really kicking on
Are you new to RateThatHorse? Take a 14-day free trial and play with the stallion ratings.Sign up today