Yesterday’s results then:
– Cuban Breeze – 3rd, Adday in Asia – nowhere
– La Mia Dutchessa – nowhere,
– Lake Hollywood – 2nd (placed, back next time)
– Inexplicable – nowhere
OK that was interesting. Four winners at Windsor last night and a further four at Southwell. There’s something of a lesson in that the summer National Hunt can come along and ruin everything because, frankly, it’s shit. Whereas sometimes the flat can just run to form. Eventually.
Anyway, Brave Emperor is bred to do better than his debut where, frankly, not everything went right, but in the 2:50 at Chepstow, if he’s given the run, he can take advantage of his HYOOGE stallion rating of 7.5. Trouble is you’re backing a horse at 11/8 on the basis of some hope, and Desperate Hero has a much better rating and a healthier speed rating too, coming 2nd in a good race at Goodwood. Oh, and is 4/1. Definitely the value pick here.
Nuble was winning for fun until last time out, and a slight easing in the weights as well as a few months’ break on the beaches of Uruguay might help. She has a 50% win rate on the all-weather, likes it here and comes at a healthy price for some place money too in the 8:15 at Lingfield. Lots to like, and while you’d probably want the weight to fall a little more before she wins again, she’s 17/2 at the moment. Yikes.
Muveran wasn’t too bad on his return at Thirsk recently – he pulled hard and then lost 2nd place after a slow start, so if he gets the right ride, his return to Newcastle where he won by a head on his 2LR could inspire something. You’d want a nice price as there are two horses at the top of the market that have the advantage in terms of LR form, but that LR number could have gone either way in the reappearance race, and you should always forgive a reappearance.
And in the 8:00, value hunters might like the 6/1 on offer against Tothenines who has twice come 2nd and has certainly looked like one who could step up and improve. Razeyna has the advantage in most departments and will probably have the edge tonight, but if you’re after place money, you may find it in the former. The latter’s yard is on fire right now, but the former has the healthier price.
Over to you now.