Morning everyone, and with the flat racing, we get statistically significant data at last – not something that you get over the jumps, much as we love the muddy stuff. And firm ground at Bath is something that Zulu Zander tends to like, and the only thing counting against him is his form. Which is a bit pants. However, that was on the all-weather and today he runs off just 1lb above his last winning mark and he’s back at a track where he’s 2 wins from 5 and he comes at a healthy enough place price. Union Rose is the other to consider at 6/1 largely because of his four from eight C&D record, but that’s tempered by a rise in weights after he had benefited from a dip in weights to record two straight victories.
Now, our maidens strategy for the summer is largely going to be the same as the successful approach we’ve taken since 2015:
– We look at stallion ratings for unraced horses, and place them if the money’s good enough, when you have at least 2 in each of jockey/trainer/stallion ratings
– Bet to win on 2nd-time-out horses who have shown promise in LR (60+ generally, more if you can)
Simple, eh? Fernando Rah is the pick on that basis in the 3:40 with a stallion rating of 2+, excellent jockey/trainer ratings and a promising start of 61 which may not be the top-rated form number, but at this stage in his career, you’re betting on the prospect of an upward curve. Signs are good, and the price is short, but he’s a likely type who will win races. 7/4.
Your stallion ratings mostly give you Pontefract horses in the 2:30, 3:00 and 3:30, including one out of Frankel (King Frankel) and one out of Sea The Stars (Home and Dry), so run the rule over them in the paddock to make sure they’re not ACTUALLY donkeys, because that would be something wouldn’t it.
And lastly, the 5:45 at Bath where Headshot ranks so well all-round that it’s hard to ignore him. TFS with a good 20 points or so on the 2nd form horse, he outranks them on form significantly and even if those are 2nd places, he’s the best horse on offer today in this race. Others might curve upwards, but this one has been running to the best form and deserves a chance at around 7/2.