Morning everyone, and another busy Saturday awaits. Now – firstly – another ‘view’ on the ratings for you subscribers is here: Top Third Quick View.
In short – a few people have asked just for a quick online view of the top 3 horses in all races, given the prevalence of winners (60% to 70% on average) in the top 3 or mostly the top 2. But then, you don’t want three horses in a four-horse race, so I’ve done is as the top 33% of the ratings. I’ve also thrown in some other metrics for you to sort by, so have a plat and let me know if you think it’s useful or not.
And so I’m going to start with the 5:00 at Ripon, in which Artistic Rifles may be short, but he’s worth it given he’s only up 2lb for having won the Spring Mile, and has a rankscore of 8, which implies that he tops all of the ratings bar one (stallion) as well as all of the form ratings. That’s quite rare – a rankscore of 6 or above is noteworthy – but 8 is statistically likely. He’s 4 from 6 over this distance AND his yard is running at 5 wins from its last 10 starts. Healthy all round, then.
The Gold Cup at Sandown (one of the many gold cups) is a chance for Enrilo to prove that he’s capable over 3 miles. He has won at 3 miles, but hasn’t raced beyond that yet, but there’s always a first time, and he looks to have the legs. His rankscore is 8.56, which implies that he’s extremely well rated all-round but most importantly, his win rate on good ground is 4 wins from 5 starts. He’s hardly raced at all this winter, so he won’t be tired, and he’s perhaps just tilted at this particular race? He’s yours for 5/1, and perhaps wise money would be on the places.
In the 8:00 at Doncaster, Voltaic is a top-three horse who is below his last winning mark, and that marks him out as interesting, especially as he’s fresh and tends to run best when he’s making a reappearance. Most importantly, he’s on a mark that’s lower than a Frankie Boyle joke about the Queen, and that’s low. You’ll get around 10/1 right now, so obviously, have a sniff around the place money, but maybe more if you’re feeling adventurous.
All-weather to turf isn’t the most obvious transition, so Little Boy Blue is taken with a small pinch of salt, but he was only beaten by Southwell specialist Zylan last time out, and has improved a lot of late. So if he can transfer that form, then a price of 4/1 in the 1:35 at Leicester could see you right, and he does have previous turf form – we’ll just have to see how he’s running right now. Top-rated, RTH Selection, and 2 wins from 7 starts on good to firm ground.
6:15 at Wolverhampton and it’s the stats wot win it for Spirit of Rowdown, very much a Wolverhampton horse. Which isn’t an insult, it’s just that he likes running at Wolverhampton. Personally, when I get to Wolverhampton, I like to run as well, as fast as possible so that I can get to the other end of it. Anyway, Spirit of Rowdown is 3 from 7 here, 4 from 8 in this direction, top-rated and well-handicapped. And a price of 7/2 is yours.
So, have a look at the top third page – I have just realised the odds aren’t on there, which would be a nice addition (a sensible one), so I’ll try to work them in later today. But let me know what you think about it & good luck today.