Yesterday’s results then:
– Plansina – 5th
– Honour Your Dreams – 4th, Mersea – 3rd (placed at 11/2)
– Point The Way – 1st
– Diligent – 1st
– OneHundredNotOut – nowhere
Morning all. So let’s start with stallion picks and why / why not…
4:50 at Newmarket has only one horse who has run, and Bolt of Thunder, despite his excellent stallion rating, came last by 9 lengths. Yikes. Centre Court is the choice instead, coming from Mark Johnston’s yard where 2yos tend to thrive.
Ubettabequick is 20/1 in the 4:45 at York, and she should get a second look. Out of Wooton Basset whose offspring have a 3 from 7 win rate at York and whose 2-year-olds have a 28% win rate generally from many more races, she’s admirably bred. This would probably be for the additional place, and Match Play has already run so should have a shot over the extra furlong.
Coal Stock romped home over C&D last week and a 4lb rise may not be enough to prevent him from getting the hat-trick tonight in the 6:55 at Fontwell. You want to be on the sunnier side of evens given that the horse he beat is now 3lb better off, but the manner of the victory was convincing enough to suggest that he’ll do it again.
Ahorsewithnoname has been quite winningy of late, firstly over hurdles and then in a two-miler at Newbury. This is a hard race to read because form has come from all over the place. Top-form horse Inca Prince earned his form over hurdles and his flat record is atrocious, three races and he’s finished last or refused to race in all of them. Utter rubbish and you can see why he’s 28/1. Ours is around 2/1 right now, and has proved his form convincingly, and now tops the speed ratings as well with a massive 88. Nice.
The 3:55 at Perth is another odd one. Plenty of these today once you look at the cards. Overthetop has a 3 from 5 win rate for his yard and is 5lb below his last race. His defeats have come in Class 1 events, and his wins have come in Class 4 events. This, however, is Class 3 – so something new to consider perhaps but a price of 11/2 gives you some kind of value for a horse that falls a little down the ratings but statistically looks like a bit of a winner. Place money, potentially, at this level.
Over to you now.