Morning everyone, and a few good winners on the preview while the new Statistically Likely system picked out horses that ran well enough without always getting a result. Today, I discovered a bug in the system so give it a refresh if you’ve seen nothing so far, there are two options…
So I’ll start with the top stallion of the day. Artorious runs in the 2:30 at Doncaster after struggling over a mile as a 2-year-old. To be fair to him, I struggled over a mile as a two-year-old, so a step back to 7 furlongs now he’s three, with a very high stallion rating and good jockey on board – well, let’s give him a chance. He’s out of New Bay, and if you look at the racecard statistics box, then you’ll see just how well New Bay’s offspring has performed on good ground over 7 furlongs (nearly a 1 in 3 strike rate on each stat).
At 1:55, you don’t know much about most of these, and of those that have run, maybe Guru is the one – but at 13/8 there are so many unknowns, taking a price like that is a huge risk. Better, perhaps, to have a look in the paddock at Credence Star whose price of 5/1 belies an interesting stallion selection. Well-supported and from a yard that wins well with 2-year-olds, you might get good place money if the market’s not interested.
Up Helly Aa is one of your two statistically likely selections and while he’s not the most winningy type of horses, he runs in the 3:25 at Naas with every chance of at least nabbing a place at the price of 9/1. He’s consistently up there and has settled in at 1m2f, running off the same mark this time as last time.
And at 1:20 at Doncaster, Chookie Dunedin has been running well at Wolverhampton and I know that the two tracks are chalk and cheese, but this is a selection whose turf record is worthy of some respect, and his mark is far lower on the grass than it is on the all-weather. For that reason, the price of 17/2 is worth taking, or at least it’s worth investigating his place money on the exchanges. There’s a lot to be said for top speed selection Red Poppy as well who gets a good jockey on board and drops back in trip for something that might suit.
Right. Over to you.