Morning all! 

Yesterday’s results:

  • Abbey Magic – 2nd
  • Mr Excellency – nowhere
  • Leuven Power – 2nd (placed), the rest (nowhere)

St. Leger Day, woohoo. I don’t know why that’s a thing, I’m more at home with the polytrack handicaps, but y’know, let’s roll with it. Before that though you have the 3:00 at Doncaster and a horse that’s somehow not RTH Selection (I know, I know, I created the algorithm and it’s a beast I no longer understand, like Frankenstein’s monster it has evolved and run off into the wild selecting its own horses like some evil Angus Loughran), because Glorious Journey tops 2LR and 3LR and has a speed rating of 90+ (top speed here obvs), and has jockey and trainer ratings above 4 and 5 respectively, which you don’t see very often but it’s St. Leger day. He’s 3/1 although Laneqash is a likely option to step up from a better form figure on LR – if you can see where it’s heading. However, not great value.

Now in the St Leger itself, Hurricane Lane is mighty short, but appears to be a cut ahead of the rest and therefore would make absolute sense even at that price. To follow up though you may do well to look at some of the better-rated horses like Sir Lucan who is 18/1 right now and has won at 1m5f (this being just an extra furlong and a bit), and has shown some decent form lately. Interpretation is another each-way option who has proved himself at this distance AND has bounced into form in the LR column, so either of those could give you some handy place money, which could be the only way of making anything on this race.

3:20 at Bath gives you Pastfact, a C&D winner (44% record) who took on a penalty last time out and came third, which in context was quite good. Most suited as a result, he’s our top-rated horse and RTH Selection and gets a good draw to boot. I don’t really have much else to say other than he’s 10/3, which is good.

Chester winners have often previously been Chester winners, which I know is a bullshit statistic but I’m going to stick with it and therefore stick with Restorer in the 4:25. He won this race last year, and while he’s been pants since, he was pants at York. He does run better at Chester, and he’s very much a Statto horse – 3 from 9 on good ground, 2 from 7 at Chester – and a 25% win rate over the distance. At a price of 10/1, you could afford to take the punt.

Corviglia is 2/1 and could open your account in the first race of the day at Leopardstown. Again, the draw will help but it’s the advantage in form that helps the most (a 139 last time out) and the stallion rating of 5+ is also indicative of great breeding. Not the easiest of races with 2-year-olds likely to improve – Lullaby being a great example – so you may need to structure a bet to save your arse – that’s your job, not mine. 

And lastly in the 4:55, a horse that would have been a punt at forecast prices, but is now just 3/1. Kaleidoscopic has been racing in far better races than this and drops both in grade and weight here in what is obvs the race of the day, the Horseradish Catering Handicap. It’s a class 4, and he’s used to coming in midfield in Class 2 handicaps, so what do you know – he’s got a chance. Just that most others have cottoned onto that as well so 3/1’s short. Anyway. There you go.

Mentions to many of the strong selections such as Hochfeld and Ginger Jam, and I’ll leave the rest to you.