Yesterday’s results:

  • Hajjam – 4th
  • Fire Away – nowhere
  • Grand Canal – 1st
  • Sandrine – nowhere

Morning everyone. Let’s look together at the 4:02 from Redcar, which I’ve made into a free racecard so you can do the same. It’s a real bugger’s muddle, this one. Sort the card by LR and you’ll find Silkie Wilkie who is a five-star strong selection – and this is what tempted me into the card. He’s up 2lb for having finished really well to win at Haydock. 

Sort the card by RS (rankscore) and he also finishes top, but with a 6.5 score, it’s not hit the magic 7 threshold and therefore, you can’t be sure of him. So what we’re going to do is look at the 2LR and start discounting some of their recent runs, because what we have are some horses who have made a reappearance and therefore needed a run, or we’ve had some horses who have been running on the wrong ground. So if we base it on 2LR, then we get some more interesting selections (and yes, you’ll have to revert to another service to find the race notes, I can’t integrate them just yet, but I’m working on it)…

– Firebomb has gone backwards in ratings, but his 2LR of 88 suggests that he is very capable. He’s 12/1 and apparently he wasn’t suited by soft ground last time out. Interesting.

– Maybe Even Never had no excuses last time out

– Texas Man is 3rd rated on 2LR and was on his reappearance after 233 days out. You can understand a lack of fitness, perhaps.

So I’m actually intrigued by the latter, as he tops the speed ratings too. It seems that his 2LR and his 3LR were both wins – from the front as well. Therefore, if he’s fit – and that is the question, but by the second race of the season he ought to be – then a price of 8/1, and some very sensible place money, might be appropriate. Firebomb tops the suitability ratings, and therefore you can’t discount him either.

Tricky race, but one I thought would be fun to analyse, and you’re all free to have a peep at the racecard, subscriber or not.

In the 5:18 at Lingers, Arpina is a very good place bet at a current win price of 15/2. This one hasn’t won a race yet, but bear with me. A couple of recent 2nd places, the last of which was without a claimer on her first attempt at a mile, put her firmly in the picture and she can break her duck – perhaps – with the claimer back on board who rode her into 2nd over 7 furlongs in the 2LR. Form numbers are good in the context of the race, and she deserves a chance today ahead of Dark Kris.

In the 5:50 at Lingers, look at Venetian who makes his debut for juvenile specialist Mark Johnston today. A price of 4/1 is quite short so make sure he has four legs and all that before you back him, but he’s out of Awtaad and gets the magic 2+ rating in stallion, jockey & trainer. That’s often what you need to find these debutants.

4:38 at Redcar, and I think we know enough about Willard Creek now after three runs, and his ratings aren’t good enough. One race in, though, and we can see that 2nd-rated Grantley Hall has a 63 rating or near enough and if there’s any improvement on that debut, then his rating today will be higher. He’s taken ahead of Thin Lizzy who has also had plenty of races to try and notch up a win but has failed to do so on nine occasions, therefore our job is not perhaps to look back at the ratings of the past but to project the ratings of the future.

Lots for you to look at today. Enjoy it.