Yesterday’s results then:
– literally nothing
Yuk. Well, we move on. Today it’s an enormous amount of racing, as you come to expect of a summer here. Also, looking at the overall results yesterday, it’s a familiar pattern to this time of year, but one you have to pay attention to (so must I…) – form is not necessarily the guide. I can afford to say that because the ratings are consistently calculated the same way. When you see horses with a 25% advantage in form figures for similar races, and they’re winding up down the field, then there are reasons for it:
– A change in ground & conditions (check suitability ratings in that case)
– Unknown factors in the field (e.g. unraced horses, reappearance)
– Not enough form to read
So you’ve got to pick your battles. Let’s look first at the stallion picks as the 3:35 at Newmarket gives you no form whatsoever to read. Yikes. Anyway, stallion / jockey / trainer ratings give you an edge here, and that means the favourite should be Fairy Cross and a price of 3/1 would be fair on the basis of breeding. That’s not to say that there might not be good value on the place market for a horse like Believing. 2+ in all three columns is always nice, and this is the yard that brought you Cachet.
Now, if you’re going to take on a 2/5 horse that has never lost a race, you have to be brave and you have to back a proven winner. So in the 3:20 at Newbury, Baeed is mighty, mighty short, and coming back on a reappearance as a 4-year-old, may or may not carry on the form that saw her win every race last year. Mother Earth, though, is 8/1 right now and won the 1,000 Guineas. Ryan Moore takes the ride, so make what you will of that. She’s already been beaten by Baeed before but she’s had a reappearance and has won at the Curragh. So if you wanted some value…
I tend to avoid Ireland these days, but looking at the 2:30 at Wexford, Buddy Rich comes through as a strong selection despite not topping a single individual rating. He rates well across the board, however, and that’s what gives him strong selection status – high enough in jockey, form, suitability – everything, and a rankscore of 7.0. A price of 5/1 means there may be place money for you if you’re interested.
Crimson Sand runs in the 3:45 at Chelmsford in a lower grade than he’s been running in lately, and with a 100+ for having run into the places last time out, he’s taken to win this easier contest albeit at a short price of 3/2. He’s got some good statistics here, as you’ll see on the racecard, and he should be able to see off the progressive City Walk who is taken to place.
In the 6:00 at Chelmsford, Street Poet is definitely of interest. He tops the ratings and is 5lb below his last winning mark with a distinct improvement in form. He usually wins at Wolverhampton, but has placed several times at Chelmo which means it’s not alien to him and he can use that improvement in form here to kick on. Yes? He’s most suited and tops rankscore, so looks handy tonight at a price currently of around 7/1.
2:05 at Navan and it’s one of those races where statistically speaking you should always back the ones with experience. Beauty Crescent earned that experience, chasing home a horse that has since gone on to win a listed race, so that is what we call franked form isn’t it. Evens at best is available for a 2yo that is bound to improve for the run, and is taken ahead of the well-bred Broadhurst who rates 2+ in all categories and – if he has four legs – should run well. Check that though, eh?
And in the 1:40 at Bangor, Go On Chez keeps getting better. Unbeaten so far over fences, he’s two races in after having had wind surgery and runs for a new yard today which is always a fillip. 2/1 seems fair, and our results at Bangor have got better over the years – we’re at 25% for our RTH Selections now on the blanket betting.