Morning everyone, and all of a sudden it’s Saturday and tomorrow’s the Scottish Grand National (which, let’s face it, can only go better than the English one). Anyway, let’s not dwell, we’ve got some picks on the flat.
I’ll start at the end in the 7:30 at Brighton where Pour la Victoire returns to his favourite stomping ground with a 34% strike rate on this track, and 3 from 10 over C&D. I mean, that’s also 7 from 10 where he hasn’t won, but he’s the RTH Selection with good ratings almost all round (except for stallion which barely matters here). He’s knocking on now, so just over a month off racing will have him nice and fresh – and he does well off this mark.
7:15 at Nottingham, and It Must Be Faith returns to Nottingham where he’s performed well in the past, and he’s also running off a good mark. Interesting, especially at 10/1. Despite some admittedly pants form, he’s taken on the basis of suitability and speed ratings, not the usual combo that we look for, but he’s fast, likes the track and is running off a significantly reduced mark. For the places, at least.
5:15 at Nottingham, and if you’re going to back one trainer right now, it’s Sir Michael Stoute who wins almost every other race he enters. So debutant, and stallion pick, Blow That Horn is of serious interest. Bred for a mile, out of Golden Horn, he may not yet have raced and is therefore a punt – but he comes at a nice price of 15/2.
In the 1:30 at the Curragh, you do have the absolute top stallion of the day, Unconquerable Keen, and he comes at 33/1. Yikes. Now – OK – I missed out on the 150/1 shot earlier in the week and that’s a lesson isn’t it. It doesn’t always happen, obvs, which is why he was 150/1, but it figures… he’s out of Clodovil, who I’d never actually heard of but his progeny have fared really well, and that’s how we measure stallion ratings.
And in the 4:55 at Brighton, Musketeer Three is short – evens – for a horse that hasn’t yet rated 60 in a race, and that’s a bit of a risk when you’ve got some unraced types who have high stallion ratings and others who have the potential to improve. Dusky Prince is the pick of them on stallion / jockey / trainer ratings, and if he’s got four legs and isn’t the size of a Shetland Pony, then it may be wiser to go with him, as his yard is doing well with juveniles right now and could do well today. Again, depends on the price you get.
Right – over to you.