Morning all, and I suppose I ought to start with Devizes in the 2:00 at Lingfield, not because he’s great value (2/1) but because he’s just won a Class 4 and now races in a Class 6 event, because y’know, he can. He’s got stats coming out of his rear end, has this one – 3 from 6 over C&D and 4 from 8 at Lingfield, he’s top-rated, top form by 31% over 2nd-rated, most suited (obviously)… if you want a box-ticker to start your day with, Devizes is your horse.
He’s up 4lb, and Attaboy Roy is up 2lb for a creditable 3rd at Redcar. Now – I wrote about this a while back – but anything within 6lb upwards on last race is statistically more winnable than anything beyond it or below it. While we all like to see a horse whose mark has slipped, you often have to hope for conditions to suit – but with Attaboy Roy, you’ve got a horse that’s seemingly in good nick, and has the chance to overturn Portelet Bay who recently won at Redcar. Sometimes you have to look for horses on the upward curve and avoid those on the downward curve. Yours is to decide which is which.
Similarly, Arctic Emperor in the 4:30 at Southwell is a horse who ran with a lot of credit, beating a couple of these while placing last time out over C&D. This is only his third start, so there’s a lot we don’t know right now, but we do know that he’s improving, getting into his stride, and capable at Southwell. 2/1 only, but the best of these on paper. Or on screen.
At 3:55, a place chance can be taken on 5/1 shot Defence Treaty. Mind you, at that price, it’s not a place chance, it ought to be a place certainty – but bear with me – he’s up 1lb and has been first or second the last four times out, and in three of those races, he was at Southwell. He just went to Redcar and won, so returns to his favourite track for another shot well within a winnable mark. Strong-ish race with lots of ups and downs in form and weights, so do be careful as with most handicaps, but worth a shout.
A word on stallion ratings before I go, then – we’re running into second-race territory where we know something about a horse – e.g. Love de Vega in the 1:00 a Ayr, who we picked out last time as a longer shot. He came in 2nd at Newmarket and goes to Ayr against a penalised horse, so should be picking this up but he’s 4/5 in a four-horse race. Yuck. So when picking a horse on stallion ratings, make sure he’s supported, and if you’ve got a rating in the LR column already, then that does help – anything above 60 on first race can be considered a plus.
Right. Over to you.