OK, so I suppose I should kick myself for not spotting the 6.71 rated stallion yesterday in the first at Windsor who won at 150/1. I mean, I can get another 149 of them wrong and still be up. But I didn’t see it, didn’t get it, didn’t tell you about it, and therefore I’ll stress the importance once more of stallion ratings when you have no other information – you’re a step ahead of the market.
Or in this case, 150 steps ahead of the market.
So today we’re at Newmarket, and frankly – good luck if you’re backing anything over there. These are all best watched because even with the unraced two-year-olds, trainers are usually sending out their very best prospects.
So it feels safest to start in the 6:00 at Newcastle with a horse that has won 2 of his last starts over C&D and comes at a price of 9/2, perhaps due to the extra 4lb that’s lumped on him, but anything within 6lb is statistically more likely than anything less than 0lb to produce a winner, so Kentuckyconnection is your horse – bang in form, on a track he likes at a distance he likes, and on a fair enough mark that he can pick up another win to make it 3 from 4.
1:00 at Newmarket, then, and this might be an opportunity to play against the 2yo who may not be a good 3yo. Magical Knight comes at odds-on and we all know what happens (cough Pinatubo cough) in this situation. Therefore, Lexington Knight, who has run already as a 3yo and has shown some promise, can step up after that narrow defeat at Doncaster and will know what he’s doing this time around. A better price of 7/2 for you here.
1:35 and a bunch of unraced 2yos to watch here – Forca Brasil doesn’t have a stallion rating because, well, his dad’s progeny haven’t made it onto the database yet. So you have to look at him in the paddock and decide whether you think it’s worth the 6/5 you might get if you’re lucky. Instead, Love de Vega comes with a good pedigree as well as the imperative jockey/trainer ratings, and while Mark Johnston’s 2yos often need a run, they all do on this occasion and the price of 9/2 is much more attractive.
For the rest? Over to you…