Good God is it that time of year again? The All-Weather algorithm will be our first stopping off point, but before we do any of that, let’s have a peep at today’s layable donkeys. The method is the same as the last few days – we’re looking to lay for the place on horses who are totally out of form, with a low-rank jockey on board and poor ratings all-round. Literally nothing in their favour from a ratings standpoint whatsoever. Who do we have?
Smoke on the Water in the 3:00 has absolutely nothing going for him, I mean, nothing. And at 2:50, True Mason has nothing either, as well as a long absence which won’t help. Hopefully they’ll both fail miserably.
Right – today’s all-weather algo has given us a few whose form is good and whose mark is fair, and that’s really all we’re after at the end of the day. At 2:35 at Lingfield, Shimmering Dawn can be forgiven a poor LR at Wolverhampton because Wolvo ain’t Lingers, and her last win at Lingfield was with James Doyle (today’s jockey). So conditions are good for her, but for Indie Angel, odds-on today without Frankie Dettori and with a massive hike in the weights for that Lingfield win that, perhaps, could be credited to Frankie himself? I mean, this is a good horse, make no doubt about it, but running over shorter in a tactical 7 furlongs? The 4/1 against Shimmering Dawn makes a little more sense.
At 2:50, Global Warning is 7/4 right now and that’s short, but his track record is nothing short of superb – 3 from 6, but also 2 from 3 for his current yard. He loves Newcastle, and I mean, who doesn’t – he probably goes out in the snow in a t-shirt just to replicate the conditions. So the price of 7/4 is fair, and he’s only raised 1lb which is more than easy enough to handle.
Now then, the 2:25 at Chelmsford gives us a little bit of a punt, as Cashel returns to the scene of his previous win over C&D at 1lb lower. The trouble is that he’s been utter pants ever since, although he does get to try out some dashing new headgear today, no doubt something that will have the ladies’ heads a-turning. He’s an unreliable sort, however, and you wouldn’t want to place him unless you’re getting place odds of at least 4/1 maybe 5/1 and so Noble Queen is your best winningy type of horse in the field. RTH Selection, good form, good speed, on a fair enough mark and there’s more to come from this one.
The exact same preview could be given to Another Angel in the 5:30 at Newcastle, so I won’t bother you too much with the deets – out of form but on a track she likes with a fair mark that’s below the last winning one. Just pants.
In the AW Champs for 3-year-olds at 3:45, Apollo One is your RTH Selection at 4/1, and I think that’s a half-decent shout from the old algorithm there. He showed a proper turn of pace right here at Lingfield in the qualifier, and that’s what marks him out with a 154 LR rating. Mix up your speed ratings with form and stalls, and you also get Diligent Harry who is better drawn that Victory Heights. The former for the place, the latter for the in-running, depending on the start.
Okey doke, the rest is up to you. Enjoy the day.