What a curious summer we’ve been having. I honestly can’t remember a summer of ratings like it, in which you have to be so careful. Last year’s results were way, way more consistent, while we’ve seen several days of 30% win rates over the last month alongside days of 10% or 11% on the blanket betting. I know you’re all way more clever than to bet blanket on RTH Selections, but I use it as an indication of which way the wind is blowing – and post-restart, we’ve had some very unusual results.
However – top 3 has remained relatively consistent so the winners have often been 2nd or 3rd rated. Bear that in mind…
There is always a time to go against ratings if you understand how they’re compiled, and the case in point might be Significantly in the 12:50 at Sandown, a horse that has consistently let punters down and rated well in the process. Well, you get the rating you deserve – so a 90 in the LR was largely down to the race and the closeness of being in 2nd, but 2nd is too common for a horse valued at 8/11 by the bookies right now. Yuk. Instead, I’d be looking at Papa’s Girl who showed a little bit of promise on debut before tackling a race that, frankly, was too strong for her – a Group 3 event. On debut, over 6 furlongs, she was travelling well until the last furlong – so a shorter distance might well help today, and I’d take her ahead of First Edition who could improve – admittedly – but would have to. And looking at Papa’s Girl’s 2LR which is still in the 50s, this is a very good score for a debut race and as it is the 2LR, I have depreciated it to 80% of its original value.
Scratch the LR and you have a good debut to build upon.
3:25 at Salisbury, and Tornadic is a debut winner who comes here with extra distance to cover, improvement to come, and 10/1 at the bookies. Say what?
This might be good place money, or it might be a flop – sometimes you need the price to justify your entering the market, and that would be at the expense of horses like Albanman who hold Derby entries and the like, despite never having raced. I mean, seriously, I could hold a Derby entry if I wanted to, let’s not get excited until we’ve seen it race.
I hate Chester. So I tend to avoid it like the plague. Nice town, horrible record at the racetrack. 2nd-rated Gabrial The Wire, however, in the 4:00, comes with a distance record of 3 from 5 and a healthy price. A C&D winner to boot, well-drawn and in with more than a chance at 15/2. Good place money, one would assume, if you’re into the exchanges.
And at 2:10, Chiefofchiefs is yours for 8/1 and has won 4 from 5 on good ground. That’s all I have to say.