Morning everyone, and a quick look at the last few days’ results – as always in April, a mixed bag, but those who follow the top-rated horses (I mean, why else are you here) would have done really really well on Wednesday afternoon. More than 50% of top-rated horses won in the day time, and the rest were either 2nd or 3rd rated.
What does this mean? Well, turf and jumps racing generally play to form when you have form that you can read, we know that and it gets better as you go through each season. All-weather racing can do, but is more susceptible to other factors which means your winners can often be found further down the ratings (weight, course records, etc. – you have a lot more data to play with here).
All that said, it’s a relatively pleasing start to the turf season and a strategy of analysing just the top 3 horses and their stats / weights will help us all.
Onwards, what have we got today?
In the 2:15 at Doncaster, it’s harsh to say that Victory Heights isn’t suited by turf, because he started off at Ascot and Newmarket in some tough races, and then went to Redcar and finished 2nd of 12. Since then he’s been on the all-weather where his record reads better, but sometimes you have to look at what the record might be – not what it was. He’s 2lb better off than his previous mark, and in terms of form, he’s actually quite well ranked – in fact, he has a rankscore of 7.75, and he has stats coming out of his arse. But our job is to imagine what he’s like in these Class 3 turf races, and he might find a place today, if not more. A price of 12/1 feels too long.
In the 3:50 at Perth, Zambella looks a lively option even at 5/2. It’s her record at this level (3 wins from 7) that pricks the ears firstly, and it’s 3 from 5 in listed races. All pretty impressive, and she’s top-rated. Now, she did fall at Cheltenham, but you can discount that as she was travelling well and anyone can fall at Cheltenham. A return to easier conditions, at Perth, will suit her nicely, and she’s your best option in this field. Momella is the obvious danger, with a 60% win rate with today’s jockey.
And in the 4:00, I want more for Dandy’s Gold, but you can see why it’s a good option, if you dig around. And I do mean ‘dig’. She flies under the radar in many respects, but the form reads relatively well compared to the rest of the field, and she’s top speed too, which helps in this sphere. She’s got some winning form and importantly her mark is coming down on turf after some performances that weren’t as bad as the final placing implies. But again, I’d want more than 3/1 because it’s a place money opportunity, but watch the market and see what you think.
Over to you!