Morning! And we’re into April already. Bloody hell. I suppose I ought to do an April Fool’s like “I’ve decided to renounce horse racing and live as a monk in Tibet” but some days, that actually sounds like a good option, and who can tell the April Fool’s jokes from reality these days anyway, eh?
Onwards – donkeys, then. And this is on request, I wouldn’t normally look at horses like this, but there’s a little methodology for horses to avoid completely even for the place results, and that involves looking for a horse that’s badly rated all round with little hope of improvement. There’s a few, such as Hunters Step at 6:20 or Rare Deal in the 6:05 who all might provide you with layable place odds on the exchanges, as they offer absolutely nothing on ratings.
At 4:50, Chelmsford, Engrave comes at a very healthy price for a horse whose ratings are quite good and whose C&D record is healthy too. Form is more or less equivalent to the biggest challenger, Channel Packet, available at the same price – but the 2 from 6 win rate here indicates that conditions are to suit this afternoon, and Engrave ought to have the edge on the top-rated Channel Packet thanks to that record. Both are running off a good mark, but also pay attention to Twypsyn who has improved in form and may run into the places too. For the notebooks.
5:20 and it’s been a damn long time since Glen Coco provided us with a win, but he’s come closest at Chelmsford, and has proven himself to be adaptable over a mile even though he’s better off shorter. A price of 4/1 might give you some value on the exchanges, but if I’m going to be honest with you – I’d want at least 2.5 for the place. If that’s available, then I’d have it, because conditions will be run to suit, he’s capable and his mark is low – with a 3lb claim (the prolific Marco Ghiani is on board).
At 6:20, the combination of Magicinthemaking and Hollie Doyle is now 4 wins from 11 starts, which implies 7 defeats from 11 starts, but bear with me. They do best together at Chelmsford, and once more the mark has slipped – this time into the high 50s. Therefore, at the price of 4/1, you can expect a good run from this selection tonight given the number of ticks in boxes. Form, for what it’s worth at this level, is equivalent to the top-rated horses – when you’re looking at the top 10 horses in the field ranking between 50 and 70, it doesn’t really matter, does it. They’re all equally naff.
OK – the rest is up to you. Enjoy it!