Just about the only time of year you get excited about racing from Redcar is around about now, before it becomes just another day of racing at Redcar. So let’s make the most of it, with our usual warning about the vagaries of gambling in April – you have the National Hunt fizzling out with horses tilted at late festivals and others too tired to race properly, and you have the Flat with horses that are either new, improved or transitioning from the all-weather where their ratings may look good, but they may not be turf horses. In other words, it’s a minefield, it’s very trappy and you do have to study your card very closely for potential problems.
I’ll give you an example. Daafr would have been a straightforward pick on the all-weather, but he goes back to Redcar in the 2:50 where frankly his turf form is a bit pants. Danielsflyer brings some good form into the race (100+ on LR) and therefore has to come into the equation, but you could also bring in Presidential who has won off higher marks and despite having bad form has a good jockey on board and is capable on his day, as well as Cruising who benefits from a jockey/trainer combo that runs at a 57% strike rate. So, trappy, and all about the value you can get (Cruising is 9/1 FYI).
Treacherous is an all-weather horse to watch – nay, he’s a Kempton horse to watch. He runs in the 5:10 at Kempton at his favoured distance on his favoured track, with 5 C&D wins from 7 starts. That’s pretty damn good, but you could also say the same of Total Commitment (4 from 6), but the handicapper may have found the latter out while the former is handily weighted today. Both are place opportunities with sizeable odds.
At 4:35, Starczewski is one of those horses that jumps out on a statistical basis – a 60% win rate under Jamie Spencer is enough to get you interested, especially at the disproportionate price of 7/2, and a 4 from 9 win rate in handicaps will also help. A mere 3lb rise for having won (again) – he’s chasing a hat-trick and given the gulf in form between him and the rest – as well as his high suitability rating, he’s taken again.
And the 4:02 at Kempton should give you Amniarix, one of the hardest horse names I’ve ever had to type, and one I’m not going to type again, but she has been on cracking form all winter, winning three on the trot with absolute ease, rating 136 on LR and despite the enormous weight gain she’s had to put on (well, haven’t we all), and she’s taken just ahead of the very fast Lavender’s Blue who should have won on the AW last time out.
Right – over to you.