Scottish Grand National Trends & Ratings Preview

So, after last week, there is a lesson to be learned – well,  an old lesson to remember… when the ground changes, change your mind. Ratings and trends might go out of the window as trainers pull horses out at the last minute, or decide to risk a horse anyway, who knows what they’ll do. And you end up with a winner who has never won before. And the Scottish National has not been friendly to punters of late, with some big-odds winners taking the prize. Most of them, however, do fit to a selection of trends, and if we’re […]

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Foxhunter’s Chase at Aintree – An Alternative To On The Fringe?

I wasn’t going to write about this race, but then I ran some quite basic trends on it and shortened the field down to three, two of which were our top two-rated horses. Which, frankly, is interesting. On The Fringe (257) nudges out Marasonnien (243) in terms of ratings and while neither of those ratings sets the world alight, Marasonnien is lifted by that suitability rating (52 compared to 23), and is in fact so far ahead on the suitability rating that the level of confidence is something we have to take note of. But those trends, they’re very simple: […]

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Betfred Bowl Chase at Aintree – Don Poli’s To Win?

Ratings tend to come into their own in these kinds of races, but when you’ve got the likes of Don Poli (439), Djakadam (416) and Cue Card (393) all lining up against each other, you need a helping hand. So what of the trends? Well, it’s a pretty even spread all round. Silviniaco Conti usually wins this, but he’s in the National instead, and we’ve generally got one big trend – most of the winners of this race were Cheltenham horses last time out. There are a few exceptions to the rule, but that’s where we’re going to find our […]

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Easter Classic Preview

Friday is all about the all weather as the winter season comes to a close, and really, it’s all about the Easter Classic. And that’s all about Grendisar (329), a 6-year-old who has really come into his own this year. A place in last year’s Easter Classic behind Tryster, who has gone on to bigger and better (and warmer) things was satisfactory at the time, but this year it would be considered failure. Marco Botti’s Winter Derby winner (and deserved winner at that) is going to be around 5/4, but can frustrate sometimes. He tends to hold back a little […]

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The Eider at Newcastle – Ratings, Trends, Preview & Tip

17 horses head to Newcastle for the feature race of the day, the Eider, so we need to shorten down the field if we’re going to stand a chance of making anything from this race. So let’s look at some trends – indicators of recent form are essential, so: A place last time out (or a fall) A win in the last 3 Carrying 11st or more Raced within the last 4 weeks Age 10 or younger There are a few other details, but I won’t bother you with them, we’re already down to just four horses: Russe Blanc (259), […]

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Grand National Trial at Haydock – Preview, Ratings & Trends

It’s not much of a Grand National Trial when there’s only a handful of horses and statistically speaking, you’re unlikely to win the National if you win the Trial. And it’s held at Haydock. Hey-ho. That’s not to say we don’t have a fascinating contest on our hands and that’s not to say that we don’t have some decent horses, two of whom meet both ratings and trends. Let’s start with the trends and they’re pretty simple – we’re looking for chasers with at least one win over 3 miles, two career wins as a minimum, 7-11 year olds who […]

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Betfred Hurdle at Newbury – Preview of Trends & Ratings

Betfred Hurdle at Newbury – Preview of Trends & Ratings

So, what to make of the Betfred Hurdle which is full of possibilities, and full of unanswered questions, or worse, unanswerable questions… The trends give us a good guide, and we really shorten down the list when we look at the trends – so perhaps that’s the best place to start. We’re looking for a lightly-raced horse, preferably 5 years old, preferably starting over hurdles in his last race although this isn’t absolutely mandatory. We also need a bit of form, so a win in the last five is imperative. The trends shortlist gives us just three – Sternrubin (317), […]

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Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Newbury 14.25

The previous role-call of winners from the Grade 2 Chase at Newbury reads like a who’s who of chasing. Coneygree took the top honours last year, Silviniaco Conti in 2013, Denman himself in 2008 and the great Kauto Star in 2007. Connections and spectators will be hoping that the 2016 running provides an exciting contest with Rocky Creek (238.87), Ballynagour (274.04) and Houblon des Obeaux (248.88) all in the running. Rocky Creek (238.87) could be back to better form for trainer Paul Nicholls tomorrow. The 10 year old partnered by Sam Twiston-Davis may have run poorly in the Becher Chase […]

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Irish Gold Cup Preview – Ratings, Trends & Tip

Irish Gold Cup Preview – Ratings, Trends & Tip

You know when the FA Cup Final is between, say, Millwall and Fulham, or someone like that, and you think – well, isn’t that nice? But it’s not something I’d want to watch. Well, I almost feel like that about this year’s Irish Gold Cup. It’s as if the best horses have steered clear of it, and we’re left with a second-degree pool of talent. Maybe I’m being harsh, it still looks like it’s going to be a fascinating race, and the one to beat, obvs, is Road to Riches (429), and you’ll find odds of 5/6 at best against […]

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