A little background – I ain’t no tipster. For one, I don’t use the hashtag #BOOM, I don’t advertise Bet365 every ten minutes, and to be honest, I don’t usually know what races are coming next. What I do try to do is understand the data behind horse racing and interpret it for you, and that does make my marketing a little difficult because a lot of people just want tips.
But if I were a tipster, would a 31% strike rate seem good? And where would I start? As some narky sod who wrote to me the other day said, 31% is rubbish, and he continued: “I just got a strike rate of 90%”.
Well, whoopy doo. 31%, which is what we got yesterday, is amazing if you can prove it would have been profitable – and that’s where we are right now – proving it would have been profitable.
A few of you have correctly pointed out that there is a big difference between the forecast price, which is what is worked into our data set, and the Betfair Starting Price. Indeed, we’d have been showing a lot more profit with BSP than forecast – and going back to my marketing, obviously, the more profit I show, the more of you come on board, and the more money I can give that developer fella to do some fun stuff.
Hmm. Anyway, I’m going to work on that because there’s always discrepancies between external data sources that result in errors creeping into the spreadsheets, which results in errors creeping into the website.
Never mind all that for now – I’m going to send you all a Google Form questionnaire because I do have some burning questions about which data is important and which isn’t – and whether you’d like access to ALL of tomorrow’s ratings (and systems, racecards, etc.) by 5 o’clock the previous day – and if so, what can we drop. I kind of know what you’re not using, but best to get your opinion on it first.
Yesterday, then, #BOOOOOOOM!
Enough of that, you can see the results for yourselves. It was all about form, when you look more closely at it – and top-rated = form would be your best guide for a midweek racecard.
Today, let’s start at the start, and a lot of confidence in Hedging in the 1:50 at Leicester, and numbers do have a tendency to sway massively with 2yo racers, so a pinch of salt there – but he’s looked likely to go further after a strong finish winning last time out, so this one should really be there for the winning, even though it’s a nursery and these nurseries – like my own two-year-old’s actual real nursery – can be unpredictable and chaotic.
It’s the same picture in the 2:00 where Whirl Me Round is the one who has proved himself and deservedly tops most of the ratings. The stallion ratings are low, but if that’s your thing, the Wild Acclaim has enough in both stallion and trainer to be the best of the unraced entrants.
Lots more running in the 2:10 at Chepstow which makes a 2/1 runner all the less appealing, but Leontes is way ahead of these on the basis of a run at Ascot, so a step back in grade is something we should all look for. So with a good run, 2/1 should be about right.
The 7:15 at Epsom is going to be competitive – and Bear Valley is the one that probably stands out the most, perhaps because of two decent finishes, Mark Johnston as trainer, Silvester of Sousa as his jockey, and it makes him one of the top-rated picks of the day. What’s more, the odds of 2/1 are quite tempting, but yes – there is plenty of competition. Navarone especially appeals based on stallion ratings alone.
And finally, in the last at Epsom, have a peep at Lord Reason who is doing well for his new yard, with four finishes in the top two, and old Silvester’s on board with odds of 4/1. Lots of reasons to back him…